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刘慧峰:疫情冲击下的黑色产业链企业避险策略
发表于:2020-2-13 8:35:30  

核心观点

❒.ZAIDIANLUGANGLIRUNSHOUZHAIHEFEIGANGGONGYINGSHOUXIANDEBEIJINGXIA,DUANQIDIANLUGANGQIYEDAFUFUCHANGAILVBUDA。GAOLUDUANQIYEQIANQISHOUYIQINGYINGXIANGYOUXIAN,DANHOUXUZAIKUCUNYALIHUISHENGYIJIWULIUSHOUXIANDAOZHIBUKUCUNKUNNANDEQINGKUANGXIA,KENENGHUIYOUJIEDUANXINGJIANCHAN。

❒.SHOUYIQINGDEYINGXIANG,BUFENZHANGLIUCHENGQIYEYEKAISHILUXUJIANCHANJIANXIU,ZHEISHIDEWEILAIYIDUANSHIJIANNEI,GANGCHANGJIANGYIJIANGDIYUANLIAOKUCUNWEIZHU。ZHEIZAIHENDACHENGDUSHANGJIANGDIXIAOYIJIDUKUANGSHIGONGYINGJIANLIANGSUODAILAIDEYINGXIANG,YINCIWEILAIYIDUANSHIJIANNEIKUANGSHIGANGKOUKUCUNRENGYOUDAFUHUISHENGYALI,GUKUANGSHIJIAGEHOUXURENGYOUDIAOZHENGKONGJIAN。WOMENRENWEIXIANHUOJIAGEKENENGHUIDIAOZHENGZHI75MEIYUANYIXIA;05HEYUEKENENGHUIJIANGZHI550YUAN/DUNYIXIA。

❒.FENGXIANYINSU:YIQINGXINGSHIJIXUEHUA,GANGCAIXIAYOUXUQIUHUIFUBUJIYUQI

SHOUDAOZHANGJIAQIJIANYIQINGFAJIAOYINGXIANG,CHUNJIEHOUSHOUGEJIAOYIRI,GUONEIHEISEXIBANKUAIDAFUXIACUO,LUOWEN、TIEKUANGZHULIHEYUEYIDIETINGSHOUPAN,CIHOUJITIANCHUXIANXIUFUXINGFANDANXINGQING,QIELUOWENGANGCHENGXIANYUANYUESHENGSHUIGEJU。MUQIANYIQINGYIRANCHUYUSHANGSHENGQI,ZAICIBEIJINGXIA,HEISEXIBANKUAIJIAGEYUNXINGJIEZOURUHE?QIYEZAIYIQINGDEYINGXIANGXIAYOUGAIRUHEGUIBIFENGXIAN?BENBAOGAOJIANGDUICIJINXINGJIANYAOFENXI。

一、当前疫情主要情况

MUQIANYIQINGRENGCHUYUSHANGSHENGQI,XINZENGQUEZHENBINGLISHUJURENGCHUYUGAOWEI,JIEZHIDAO2YUE8RI,QUANGUOLEIJIQUEZHENBINGLI37198LI,XINZENG2656LI。DANTONGSHIYECHUXIANLEYIXIEJIJIDEXINHAO,YISHIFEIHUBEIDIQUXINZENGQUEZHENBINGLILIANXU5TIANXIAJIANG;ERSHIZUOWEIXINZENGQUEZHENBINGLILINGXIANZHIBIAODEXINZENGYISIBINGLIHEXINZENGYIXUEGUANCHARENSHUYOUCHUBUDEDAOKONGZHIDEJIXIANG。BUGUO,XIAZHOUYOUJIANGMIANLINXINYILUNDEFANCHENGGAOFENG,YINCI,YIQINGSHIFOUCHUXIANGUAIDIANSHANGXUGUANCHA。

二、对成材供需的影响

1.对钢材需求的影响

YIQINGDUIGANGCAIXUQIUDEYINGXIANGZHUYAOTIXIANZAIYINGUANKONGCUOSHIDUIRENYUANLIUDONGDEXIANZHIDAOZHIDEFUGONGYANHOUSHANGMIAN。MUQIANDUODIYIJINGQIDONGLEZHONGDATUFAGONGGONGWEISHENGSHIJIANYIJIXIANGYING,BUFENDIQUCAIQULEFENGCHENG、FENGLU、XIANZHIWAILAIRENYUANJINRUDENGCUOSHI,BUFENGAOTIEYEYOUTINGYUN,DUIRENYUANLIUDONGXINGCHENGLEMINGXIANYIZHI,JINNIANCHUNJIEZHIHOUDAOZHENGYUESHISI,QUANGUOTIELULVKELEIJIFASONGLIANG3157.8WANRENCI,JIAOQUNIANTONGQIXIAJIANG73.58%。YUCITONGSHI,GESHENGFENFENYANCHILEQIYEDEFUGONGSHIJIAN,YAOQIUQIYEBUDEZAOYU2YUE9RIFUGONG,LINGYOUSUZHOU、WUXIYAOQIUBUDEZAOYU2YUE20RI,WENZHOUBUDEZAOYU2YUE17RI,SHANXITAIYUAN、GUANGDONGLECONGBUDEZAOYU3YUE1RI。BUGUO,XUYAOZHUYIDESHI,JISHIFANCHENG,ANZHAOMUQIANGEDIQUDEGUIDING,RENGXUMIANLIN14TIANDEGELIGUANCHAQI,QIEFANGYIWUZIJINZHANGYIJIGEDIDUIYUFUGONGDEYANGETIAOJIAN,DOUHUIYINGXIANGQIYEFUGONGDESHIJIJINDU。SHANGZHOUHANGZHOUYUHANGQUHEZHENGZHOUFENBIEJIANGJIANZHUGONGDIDEFUGONGSHIJIANYANCHIZHI2YUE29RIHE3YUE16RI,WUXIJIANZHUXINGYEFUGONGWUMINGQUESHIJIAN,ERCHENGDOUZEGUIDINGQIYECHUXIAN1RENQUEZHENJIWEIZHONGDAANQUANSHIGU。SUOYIZONGHELAIKAN,WOMENRENWEILUOWENGANGDEXUQIUYAODAO3XIAXUNDAO4YUECHUCAIKENENGHUIFUZHIZHENGCHANGSHUIPING。

2.对钢材供给的影响

CHUNJIEZHANGJIAQIJIAN,DIANLUGANGQIYEJIBENCHUYUTINGCHANZHUANGTAI,JIEZHIDAO1YUE31RI,QUANGUODIANLUGANGKAIGONGLVHECHANNENGLIYONGLVSHUJUFENBIEWEI5.88%HE4.23%,DIYUQUNIANTONGQISHUIPING。GENJUWOMENDECESUAN,DIANLUGANGYIJINGCHUYUKUISUNZHUANGTAI,MUQIANWEI-84YUAN/DUN。TONGSHIZAIYIQINGDEYINGXIANGXIA,FEIGANGGONGYINGKAISHISHOUXIAN。YIFANGMIAN,SHEHUICAIGOUFEIGANGDUIGAODUYILAIRENGONGHEWULIUYUNSHU,ZAIYIQINGGUANKONGCUOSHIZUDUANRENYUANHEWULIULIUDONGDEQINGKUANGXIA,SHEHUICAIGOUFEIGANGNANYOUMINGXIANZENGZHANG。LINGYIFANGMIAN,ZAIZHIZAOYEQIYEFUGONGPUBIANYANHOUDEQINGKUANGXIA,ZICHANFEIGANGGONGYINGYEHUISHOUDAOXIANZHI。SUOYI,ZAIYINGLISHOUZHAIHEFEIGANGGONGYINGSHOUXIANDEBEIJINGXIA,DIANLUGANGQIYEDUANQIDAMIANJIFUCHANDEGAILVBUDA。

CONGZHANGJIAQIJIANQINGKUANGKAN,YIQINGDUIYUZHANGLIUCHENGQIYEYINGXIANGZONGTIYOUXIAN,BULUNSHIGAOLUKAIGONGLVHAISHIRIJUNTIESHUICHANLIANGJUNGAOYUQUNIANTONGQI。ZHEIYIFANGMIANYOUYUGAOLUTINGCHANCHENGBENJIAOGAO,LINGYIFANGMIANZEYOUYUQIANQIGAOLULIRUNSHANGKE,MUQIANLUOWENGANGGAOLULIRUNRENGWEICHIZAI500YUAN/DUNZUOYOUDESHUIPING。BUGUO,HOUQIZHANGLIUCHENGGANGCHANGYEKENENGHUICHUXIANBEIDONGJIANCHAN。ZHUYAOJIYUYIXIALIANGDIANYUANYIN,YISHISHOUDAOJIAOTONGGUANZHIYINGXIANG,GANGKOUYUNSHUSHOUXIANDAOZHIGANGCHANGYUANLIAOBUKUCUNKUNNAN。GENJUWOMENLEJIEMUQIANGANGCHANGYUANLIAOKUCUNJIBENZAIYIZHOUZUOYOU,YIDANKUCUNXIAOHAOWANBI,ZEKENENGHUICHUXIANBEIDONGJIANCHAN。ERSHI,SHOUXUQIUJIANSHAOYIJIWULIUYINSUYINGXIANG,GANGCHANGCHANGNEIKUCUNCHIXUDUIJI,ZUIXINYIQIDELUOWENGANGGANGCHANGKUCUNYUQUNIANNONGLITONGQIXIANGBIZENGJIA51%,ERSHEHUIKUCUNJINZENGJIA2.9%,POYUKUCUNYALI,HOUQIGANGCHANGYEKENENGHUIBEIDONGJIANCHAN。GENJUWOMENDELEJIEHEHUIZONG,MUQIANYIJINGYOUYUE20JIAGANGCHANGFABULEJIANCHANJIANXIUJIHUA,YUJIYINGXIANGTIESHUIRICHANLIANGYUE10.5WANDUN。LINGWAI,BENZHOUQUANGUOGANGCHANGGAOLUKAIGONGLVHECHANNENGLIYONGLVFENBIEXIAJIANG2.76HE2.17GEBAIFENDIAN,WEILIANXUSANZHOUHUISHENGZHIHOUDESHOUDUXIAJIANG,247JIAGANGCHANGRIJUNTIESHUICHANLIANGYEJIAOQIANYIZHOUXIAJIANG6WANDUNZHI217.44WANDUN。

3.供强需弱背景,钢材库存压力将进一步加大

TONGGUOSHANGMIANDEFENXIWOMENKEYIKANCHU,JINGUANYIQINGDUILUOWENXUQIUDEYINGXIANGMINGXIANDAYUGONGJI,ZAIZHEIZHONGQINGKUANGXIA,WEILAI1-2GEYUELUOWENGANGJIANGMIANLINJIAODADEKUCUNYALI。WOMENJIASHELUOWENGANGXUQIU2YUEFENTONGBIXIAJIANG30%,3YUEFENTONGBIXIAJIANG15%;3YUEXIAXUNZHIHOULUOWENGANGCHANLIANGHUIFUZHIQUNIANTONGQISHUIPING,ZELUOWENGANGKUCUNGAODIANKENENGHUICHUXIANZAI2YUEDIDAO3YUECHU,KUCUNSHUIPINGYUEZAI1720WANDUNZUOYOU,GAOCHU2019NIANYUE360WANDUN,YECHUANGCHULEJIN5NIANLAIDEXINGAO。SUIZHEZHEIYIYUQIDEZHUBUDUIXIAN,GANGCAIJIAGERENGMIANLINJIAODADEXIAXINGYALI,WOMENYUJI05HEYUEBUPAICHUYOUCESHIGAOLUCHENGBENDEKENENG(MUQIANWOMENCESUANDEGAOLUCHENGBENZAI3150ZUOYOU)。

BUGUOZHONGQILAIKAN,ZHENGRUWOMENQIANMIANBAOGAOZHONGTIJI,JIANZHUYEDEXUQIUZHIHUIYANHOUERBUHUIXIAOSHI,QIEZAIYIJIDUXIAOFEIXIAHUADAOZHIJINGJISHUJUYALIJIAODADEQINGKUANGXIA,HOUQIZHENGFUKENENGHUIJIADANIZHOUQIDIAOJIELIDULAIWENDINGJINGJIZENGZHANG。YINCI,MUQIANDUILUOWENGANGJIEDUANXINGDEBEIGUANBUNENGDENGTONGYUQUSHIXINGBEIGUAN,YIDANYIQINGQINGKUANGYOUSUOHAOZHUANHEKUCUNGUAIDIANCHUXIAN,HOUQILUOWENGANGXUQIUCUNZAIJIZHONGBAOFADEKENENGXING,JIESHIKENENGHUICHUXIANYIBOSHANGZHANGXINGQING,ZHEIYESHIJINQILUOWENYUANYUEHEYUESHENGSHUIJINYUEDEZHUYAOLUOJI。

三、对于原料端的影响

CHUNJIEQIAN,TIEKUANGSHIGONGYINGJIEDUANXINGPIANJINYIJIGANGCHANGBUKUCUNLIANGDAYINSUZHICHENGKUANGJIAZOUGAO,DANMUQIANZHEILIANGDALUOJIZHENGZAIZHUJIANXIAOTUI,YIFANGMIANJIEQIANGANGCHANGKUANGSHIKUCUNYIJINGBUCHONGZHI2260WANDUNLISHIGAOWEI;LINGYIFANGMIAN,JINLIANGZHOUWAIKUANGFAHUOLIANGCHIXUHUISHENG,MUQIANAOZHOU、BAXIKUANGSHIFAHUOLIANGWEI2049.9WANDUN,JIAOZUIDIDIANLEIJIHUISHENG488.8WANDUN。LINGWAI,WOMENQIANMIANYEFENXIDAO,SHOUYIQINGDEYINGXIANG,BUFENZHANGLIUCHENGQIYEYEKAISHILUXUJIANCHANJIANXIU,ZHEISHIDEWEILAIYIDUANSHIJIANNEI,GANGCHANGJIANGYIJIANGDIYUANLIAOKUCUNWEIZHU。ZHEIZAIHENDACHENGDUSHANGJIANGDIXIAOYIJIDUKUANGSHIGONGYINGJIANLIANGSUODAILAIDEYINGXIANG,YINCIWEILAIYIDUANSHIJIANNEIKUANGSHIGANGKOUKUCUNRENGYOUDAFUHUISHENGYALI,GUKUANGSHIJIAGEHOUXURENGYOUDIAOZHENGKONGJIAN。WOMENRENWEIXIANHUOJIAGEKENENGHUIDIAOZHENGZHI75MEIYUANYIXIA;05HEYUEKENENGHUIJIANGZHI550YUAN/DUNYIXIA。ZHONGQIKAIKANDEHUA,RUOYIQINGXIAOTUIHOU,GANGCAIXUQIUHUIFU,GANGCHANGLIRUNHAOZHUANDEHUA,ZEKUANGSHIJIAGEYOUKENENGGENSUIHAOZHUAN。

四、主要结论及企业操作策略

1.ZHUYAOJIELUN

JINGUANMUQIANYIQINGYIJINGCHUXIANLEYIXIEJIJIXINHAO,DANFANGKONGCUOSHIRENGZAIJINYIBUQUYAN,BUFENDIQUYIJINGJIANGFUGONGSHIJIANYANZHANGZHI2YUEDI,SHIJIFUGONGSHIJIANKENENGJINYIBUYANHOU。XUQIUDEDIMIKENENGHUIDAOZHIGANGCAIKUCUNLIANGCHUANGCHUXINGAO,GAODIANCHUXIANSHIJIANYEHUIYOUSUOYANHOU,YINCI05HEYUEBUPAICHUYOUJINYIBUCESHIGAOLUCHENGBENDEKENENG。DUIYU10HEYUE,WOMENRENWEI,YIQINGGUOHOU,YANHOUDEXUQIUKENENGHUIJIZHONGBAOFA,TONGSHIGUOJIAYEKENENGHUIJIADANIZHOUQIDIAOJIELIDU,YIMIBUXIAOFEIXIAHUADUIJINGJIDEYINGXIANG,JIESHIKENENGHUICHUXIANYIBOSHANGZHANGXINGQING,DANMUQIANCHANYEQUDONGSHANGWEITIXIAN。JIANYIHOUQIMIQIEGUANZHUXINZENGQUEZHENBINGLIGUAIDIANHESHICHUXIANYIJIGONGRENFANGONGHEXIAYOUXIANGMUKAIGONGQINGKUANG

CHUNJIEZHANGJIAZHIQIAN,GANGCHANGKUANGSHIKUCUNYIJINGBUCHONGZHIXIANGDUIGAOWEI,QIEDANGQIANSHOUDAOYIQINGDEYINGXIANG,GANGKOUWULIUYUNSHUXIANZHIJIAOWEIYANGE,TONGSHIJINQIYIXIEZHANGLIUCHENGGANGCHANGDEJIANCHANYEHUIDUIKUANGSHIXUQIUCHANSHENGYIDINGYINGXIANG。XIANGFAN,KUANGSHIGONGYINGZEXIANGDUIGANGXING,ZHEISHIDEHOUQIGANGKOUKUCUNRENGYOUJINYIBUHUISHENGKONGJIAN,DUANQIJIANGJIXUDAYAKUANGSHIJIAGE。ZHONGQILAIKAN,RUOGANGCAIXUQIUHAOZHUAN,GANGCHANGLIRUNXIUFU,ZEKUANGSHIJIAGEYEHUIZOUGAO

2.主要操作策略

(1)YIBANTOUZIZHE

DANBIAN:DUANQIDUIYU05HEYUELUOWEN、KUANGSHIRENGJIANYIFENGGAOGUKONG;ZHONGQIRUOQIANSHUYIXIEJIJIXINHAOCHUXIAN,ZEKEKAOLVFENGDIMAIRULUOWEN10HEYUE。

TAOLI:JIACHA100YIXIAJINXINGLUOWENMAI10PAO01KUAQIZHENGTAO,JIACHA20YIXIAJINXINGTIEKUANGSHIMAI09PAO01KUAQIZHENGTAO。

(2)GANGCHANGFANGMIAN

QIANMIANFENXIZHONGCENGJINGTIDAOYOUYUYUNSHUWULIUDEXIANZHIYIJIMAOYISHANGXINTAIBIANHUA,HOUQIKUCUNDEDUIJIKENENGGENGDUIYIGANGCHANGKUCUNWEIZHU,ZHEIDAOZHILEGANGCHANGKUCUNYALIJIAODA。KAOLVDAODANGQIANGAOLUQIYEYINGLISHANGKE,YINCIGANGCHANGKEKAOLVZAIJINYUE05HEYUESHANGDUIBUFENKUCUNJINXINGTAOQIBAOZHICAOZUO。WOMENYIGAOLUCHENGBEN3100YUAN/DUN,AN05HEYUECHIYOUZHIJIAOGEJISUAN,MUQIANJINXINGTAOQIBAOZHICHUDUICHONGJIAGEXIADIEFENGXIANWAI,RENGKEHUODEXIAOBUFENJICHASHOUYI。

(3)MAOYISHANGFANGMIAN

RUOCHUNJIEZHIQIANJINXINGLEDONGCHU,ZEKAOLVZAIJINYUEHEYUESHANGJINXINGTAOBAO,YIDUICHONGBUFENXIANHUOXIADIEFENGXIAN。CONGMUQIANDEJICHAQINGKUANGLAIKAN,JINYUE05HEYUEYUSHANGHAISANJILUOWENGANGDEJICHAWEI252.32YUAN,JICHALV7.59%,CHUYUJIAODIWEIZHI,JIEHEDANGXIAJIBENMIANZHUANGKUANG,WOMENRENWEIHOUXUKENENGHUICUNZAIQIXIANTONGSHIXIADIE,QIEJICHAKUODADEQINGKUANG。

LINGWAI,KAOLVDAOYIQINGYINGXIANGSHUYUJIEDUANXINGDE,ZHONGQIXUQIUDAGAILVHUIYOUQIANGJINGFANDAN,YINCI,RUONIANQIANWEIJINXINGDONGCHU,ZEKEKAOLVZAIYUANYUE10HEYUESHANGFENPIJIANLIBUFENXUNIKUCUN。TONGSHI,KAOLVDAODUANQIRENGYOUERCITANDIKENENG,SUOYIYIDANJIAGEHUIDIAOJIAODUO,KEKAOLVKONGJINYUE05DUICHONGBUFENTOUCUN。

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